Prologue: To the Energy War

We need a huge transition our energy before Earth's temperature rises by more than 2 degrees.
Why? We will die then.

 

I thought after looking around the energy section in a bookstore.

 

BTW,, I am curious

What are the myriad meanings hidden within that sentence?

 

 

Energy Revolution. Why it happens? Where it happens? What would be a big issue? Moreover, what will the future hold?

 

"Global Warming gets serious, I mean really serious. We must stop it!"
I know, just another cliché,,, Really?

 

When I was a kid, global warming was a topic that would only appear in science comic books. But after being an adult, I began to gradually "feel" global warming. 

 

Net Zero, the word in several policies, means reducing the net emission of 6 greenhouse gases to zero(0). Global Warming occurs when there is an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases, preventing solar energy from leaving the Earth. In other words, we should get rid of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, fluorinated gases, hydrofluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) if we really wish to save the Earth from the terrible heat.

Well, it's all well-known information.)

 

Of course, there are several controversial regarding the name and causes of global warming, but the fact that the Earth is getting hot even right now doesn't change. We can easily realize it just looking at the drastic temperature rise when global warming and super El Niño hit shows. (Typically, during a super El Niño, sea surface temperatures increase by 1.5 degrees, resulting in a greater impact on world temperature rise and extreme weather.)

Source: ResearchGate

 

The equatorial regions of the tropical Pacific, where the most solar energy is received, have high sea surface temperatures. El Niño is a natural phenomenon in the sea temperature of the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which is relatively low every 2-5 years and remains higher than usual for several months.

 

As a result, Southeast Asia is suffering from abnormally high degrees. Following Bangkok Post, the highest temperature this year in April was 44.5 degrees Celsius, a 30% increase from the average.(The perceived temperature is over 50 degrees.)

 

Source: BBC News, Lincoln Journal Star

 

India and Southeast Asia are plagued by floods, while Europe and Southeast Asia face wildfires and droughts. Unlike before, this time a super El Niño with a predicted sea surface temperature rise of over 2 degrees is heralding the outbreak of viruses, tropical diseases, and animal extinctions.

 

Not Just about the environment.
To become the "Green Leader", the whold world sometimes cooperates, fights and competes. Ultimately, this means that "Green" is the center of political and economic power.

 

When I thought of the word, "Green", I used to come up with polar bears, but now I think of the economic policies emerging worldwide.

Source: ESPEO CREW

 

Even though WW2 ended, power struggles among nations remain and continue. The geopolitical, historical and civilizational characteristics of the EU, the US, China and Russia are all different. 

I am not sure when WW3 will erupt, but just judging from the current situation, "capital market wars" are becoming even more intense.

 

Even though it is too long way to carbon neutrality (as you can see the UNFCC's COP agreements on "energy trasition from fossil fuels"), each country's policy shows fierce competition to seize the future.( Such as Europe's European Green Deal, the United States' Net Zero policy, and Korea's NDC.)

 

Why did the whole world (excluding developing countries, of course) put forward Green Deal policies?

 

If it was just a "doing good thing for humanity", now, it creates a new gap between those who generate capital and those who cannot implement it.

Despite the packaging of the word Green, the world is trying and moving to lower the Earth's temperature.

 

** Europe is preparing to seize power after becoming the first to dominate the market as the Green Leader and setting international standards, leading to the era of Net Zero. The United States, under both the Biden and Trump administrations, is voicing different eco-friendly policy agendas. Let's delve into this further in the following sections.

 

To pursue the Green Deal, achieving carbon neutrality is necessary, meaning reducing greenhouse gases. So where are the areas and sectors currently emitting the most greenhouse gases?

 

 

Source: Korean Ministry of Environment

According to the Ministry of Environment's announcement in 2020, the sector with the highest greenhouse gas emissions is energy. Breaking it down further, within the Energy Sector, 1) Energy Industry (36.1%), 2) Manufacturing and Construction (27.7%), and 3) Transportation (14.7%) are the major contributors.

 

To be more specific, the top 5 sectors are 1) Public electricity and heat production, 2) Steel, 3) Chemicals, 4) Road transportation, and 5) Households.

In other words, reducing greenhouse gases in these areas is the target aim domestically.

Wait, what is the major category that this target aim falls under? It's Energy.

 

That's right. It's ultimately energy.

(...) AI will eventually become AGI. To transition to AGI, the demand for AI semiconductor technology will increase, leading to the rise of SDV (Software Defined Vehicle) in the mobility industry. With the success of SDV, MR (Mixed Reality) will also prosper. Then, the AI industry will flourish even more. However, the current transition to SDV is associated with the transition to electric vehicles (although the electric vehicle market is sluggish). That's just my thought process on this matter. (...)

 

That's a thought I had on my way to work. But the most important question was missing. "How will that market emerge?"

 

To advance AI to become AGI, more powerful DC (Data Centers) will be needed, and more electrical energy will be consumed for more complex computations. To meet this demand, more electrical  energy production will be required. (Unless groundbreaking low-power technologies are developed. Cooling water will probably be used extensively.)

The transition to SDV and electric vehicles is similar. The growth of the electric vehicle and secondary battery markets occurred to reduce the use of fossil fuels. So, in essence, we need to electrify what was previously powered by burning oil and coal. But is this the best solution?

 

Ultimately, the key questions are:

1. How will we cope with the increasing energy demand without emitting greenhouse gases?
2. Can the alternative of utilizing electrical energy take over the entire energy industry?

There are no definitive answers for the future, but I want to discuss the future and the situations that will unfold.